Start with the decisions
A fund return describes an outcome. Our manager research also asks what happened when reported portfolio positions changed, and how those changes related to subsequent asset performance.
The aim is to make a specific part of the investment process more observable. Stock picking and downside protection address different questions and are presented separately.
Two complementary perspectives
Stock picking
The return-focused measure examines the subsequent return effects associated with changes in reported positions. It offers a historical view of whether the observed decisions helped or hindered the measured outcome.
Downside protection
The drawdown-focused measure examines subsequent downside effects associated with those changes. A decision can have a different assessment on return and on drawdown, so the two measures should be read together.
Reading the public example
The Portugal Funds public sample includes an anonymised Fund 01 with stock-picking and downside-protection scores of approximately 49 and 42 out of 100, assessed on 30 September 2026. The published explanation uses a five-year history and three-month outcome windows.
The scale has a neutral reference of 50. It is not a percentage chance of success, a peer percentile or a regulatory risk rating. The fund identity is reserved for the subscription experience.
What the evidence can support
Reported portfolios are observations at particular dates. They do not reveal every transaction, the exact execution time, the complete investment thesis or every constraint faced by a manager.
A useful reading therefore considers the reporting frequency, available history, asset coverage and assessment window alongside the score. The measures are experimental historical assessments, rather than forecasts of what a manager will do next.
From research to application
The models form part of the wider Portugal Funds research experience, powered by Fundraxis. Investors can connect available analytical measures with fund portfolios, terms and source documents.
The methodology can be explored in more detail on Portugal Funds. As with the broader research programme, interpretation should remain tied to the scope of the underlying evidence.